What are the for U.S. economy in '87? SPROING

Scan page 15

... Philippines revolt 14 SOCIALIST ACTION DECEMBER 1986 rates should fall slightly, and the dollar should remain at about its current exchange rate. It also predicts a lower budget deficit, a stabilization in Third World debt, and most important—a new dose of consumer spending.

Let us look at each of these briefly and see what the next year or so has in store for working people.

The Reagan administration projection of a net gain of 2 million jobs next year is deceiving. Demographic charts point to a need for a half million new teachers a year beginning in the next three years. And other jobs will be created in low-paid service occupations and in the quasi-professions (advertising and sales).

But industrial jobs will not be created and the growth of office work has noticeably slowed. Already General Motors has announced that 29,000 workers in five states will be permanently laid off. The major rail companies are also preparing mass layoffs.

While the jobless rate remains at 7 percent, this is only because an additional 1.4 million people were cut from unemployment benefits in 1986 and are therefore not included in the statistics. Nearly 6 million people only work part-time.

Interest rates and the dollar The corporations are anticipating a lowering of interest rates. Lawrence Chimerine, head economist at Chase Econometrics, says: "What is needed is a big dose of monetary stimulus."

There have already been two cuts in the discount rate since January, but both have failed to spur the economy. There will be a slight effect from the expected mortgagerate decrease from 10.5 per cent to 9.5 percent. But the addition of only a few hundred thousand qualified home (continued from page 1: “Rail bosses step up union-busting attacks”)

for "constructive criticism" of the Aquino regime.

"We are not against the government of Corazon Aquino," emphasized KMU leader Crispin Beltran, one of the organizers of the general strike. "In fact, these actions are in support of President Aquino."

But despite the message of "support" given by leaders of the KMU, the CPP, and other workers' organizations, Aquino reacted strongly against their call for a Jeanne-Marie Hallacy La weaker prices for general strike and mass demonstration. As Olalia's funeral march neared the national palace, it was met by marine, army, and air-force units with machine guns.

Soldiers were ordered to "shoot to kill" any intruders. But some soldiers wore black armbands, indicating their sympathy with the Olalia mourners.

The government fears mass mobili -zations—unless it can maintain strict control over them. An independent movement of "people power" based on the labor unions, peasant federations, and poor people's groups could involve new sectors —such as rank-and-file soldiers—and move rapidly beyond the bounds of the present capitalist government.

As a result, the Manila Bulletin reports, government negotiators have been demanding a clamp-down on political strikes as a precondition for a cease-fire agreement with the NPA.

Support to Aquino backfires The support to Aquino offered by working-class leaders has disoriented the labor movement and given the president a free hand to offer concessions to the military and right wing.

Aquino agreed to dismiss several cabinet members-and add military representatives onto her team negotiating with the New People's Army. And she said she would personally "lead the war" against the NPA if a cease-fire were not enacted soon.

During the Nov. 17-20 general strike, soldiers were sent out to drive municipal buses. The army has also moved in against striking miners, garment workers, hotel workers, and workers on the sugar plantations.

Last month, police evicted about 5000 poor people living in shanties in the northeast corner of Manila. "Now this land is for the rich," one man complained to The "Can't you see we're in a stall? Get out and PUSH!"

buyers will neither provide needed shelter nor help the capitalist economy much. At this stage in the business cycle a cut in interest rates is almost meaningless.

Some economists question whether a further weakening of the dollar would help the economy. An expected increase in exports from such a development would be insignificant in the light of inflationary pressures and a capital flight taking investment dollars abroad.

For workers such a shift would mean higher prices for foreign products—rapidly matched by their greedy American counterparts—and a downturn in the economy.

The huge national debt, augmented by $200-billion deficits, will force cuts in the already decimated social services. Measures like the current version of the Tax Reform law are intended to force such cuts.

The Third World debt problem cannot disappear without a sharp increase in commodity prices, a restructuring of the loans, and a merciless attack on the living standards of people in the underdeveloped countries.

Selling into dollar market could result in slightly higher such products as sugar, coffee, Philadelphia Inquirer, as a wrecking crew flattened his house. "We voted for Cory in February," he continued, "because we thought that if she was president, then things would be better.

But nothing has happened."

After nine months in power, the government has done little to provide housing, jobs, and land reform. The euphoria that carried Aquino into power has clearly frayed. Some leaders of the workers' and peasants' organizations have begun to think twice about continuing their policy of "critical support" to Aquino. "We were attacked under the Marcos regime," said peasant leader Jimmie Tadeo. "Why are we now being attacked under the Cory regime?" (San Francisco Examiner, Nov. 20, 1986.)

The answer to Tadeo's question lies in an analysis of the class character of the Aquino regime. Despite certain tactical disagree -ments with the military figures in her government, Aquino shares with them a basic commitment to protecting the interests of the capitalist class.

American big business Above all, Aquino must appease the U.S. capitalists, who in 1984 raked in 64.6 percent of the profits in Philippine Boston Socialist Action P.O. Box 1046 GMF Boston, MA 02205 (617) 389-4075 Chicago Socialist Action Box 80B, 2520 N. Lincoln Chicago, IL 60614 Cincinnati Socialist P.O. Box 37029 Cincinnati, OH 45222 (513) 242-9043 Cleveland Socialist P.O. Box 6151 Cleveland, OH 44101 (216) 429-2167 Where To Find Usi Detroit Socialist P.O. Box 19613 Detroit, MI 48219 Grand Rapids Socialist Action P.O. Box 3505 Grand Rapids, MI 49501 Los Angeles Socialist P.O. Box 60605 Terminal Annex Los Angeles, CA 90060 (213) 250-4608 Minneapolis Socialist P.O. Box 14087 Dinkeytown Station Minneapolis, MN 55414 World commodities are saturated, such price movements would be a brief and inconsequential development.

Most major Third World debtor nations are unable to make payments on the principal. Some, such as Mexico, are finding it impossible to pay the $8 billion to $10 billion a year the imperialist banks demand. If Mexico were to default, a depression on a worldwide basis would ensue.

None of the U.S. banks with major debt exposures in Mexico could withstand a default. Since they are the largest banks in the United States with a matrix of deposits and debts in thousands of smaller banks, the banking system would collapse. The only way out for the capitalists is to try to reschedule once again-but the noose grows tighter.

Finally, the Reagan administration is counting on a renewed spurt of consumer spending in the coming year. When capitalists talk of consumer spending, they are talking about those in the top 40 percent of incomes. The majority of workers are not included because we spend all we get and cannot increase our spending.

But even many in the top 40 percent cannot increase spending. Consumer debt in May 1986 already stood at a record $560.62 billion and is rising at an annual rate of 11.6 percent. In fact, it is very probable that the so-called upper middle class (known in capitalist terms as "significant consumers") will be repaying debt for the rest of the year and will not be in a position to add to debt obligations.

For the year ahead there is only a marginal chance that the capitalist economy will grow at all. Economists have coined a new term for it-"growth recession" — in which, technically, the economy grows slightly but all improvement goes to the capitalist class while the overall standard of living slips somewhat.

This is the most likely scenario for the year ahead. While there is no chance the standard of living will improve, there is a serious possibility of collapse if the capitalists are unable to control their increasing problems.

CHRYSLER CORPORATION manufacturing and over 50 percent of profits in the banking sector. Philippine workers are the lowest paid in the Pacific Rim. For the moment, the capitalists are relying on Aquino to make sure the situation stays that way. "We support the government of President Corazon Aquino firmly, totally, and unequivocably," U.S. Ambassador Stephen W. Bosworth states for the record. But if the Aquino regime is unable to rein in the labor movement and maintain "law and order," the U.S. government may shift its allegiance to those preparing a right-wing coup.

The Philippines must not become another bloodbath like Pinochet's Chile. Now is the time to build a strong independent united front of the workers' and peasants' organizations to counter the rightwing mobilization.

These organizations should demand that the government provide arms to the people to defend their workplaces and neighbor -hoods against the terror and assassination squads.

Above all, a revolutionary socialist party must be built in the Philippines, which can provide a clear program of action so that the workers and peasants can bring about for themselves a true "people power."

New York Socialist Action P.O. Box 20209, Ca. Finance 693 Columbus Ave.

New York, NY 10025 Phoenix Socialist Action P.O. Box 5161 Phoenix, AZ 85010 (602) 263-5190 San Francisco Socialist Action 3435_Army St., Suite San Francisco, CA 9 1110 (415) 821-0458

Scan page 16

Kingmond Young Trotsky and Frida: The Musical, a play produced by The Traveling Jewish Theatre, written by Albert Greenberg and directed by David Brune and Gisela Getty.

Last month, The Traveling Jewish Theater presented their premiere of three new plays during its annual home season at Theater Artaud in San Francisco. I feel privileged to have seen their performances.

One of the plays, "Trotsky and Frida: The Musical," takes place against the backdrop of Leon Trotsky's exile in Mexico. It tells the story of an alleged love affair between the former leader of the Russian Revolution and the artist Frida Kahlo—who was married to muralist Diego Rivera.

Playwright Albert Greenberg and Helen Stoltzfus play the lead roles. The actors' ability to communicate the personalities of the historical figures they por -tray-considering that all the performers are too young to have known or participated in the lives of these people-is an acknowledgment of their commitment to their art.

I came away from the theater feeling a contradiction in my attempt to be objective about a man with whom my own political commitments are tied. The further I got away from the performance, however, the more I realized that Leon Trotsky came out as a very human personality in this portrayal.

The playwright implies that the political conflicts between Trotsky and dictator Joseph Stalin were the source of the conflicts that Trotsky and Frida Kahlo felt in their attempt to express their feelings for one another. In one scene, for example, Trotsky criticizes Kahlo for painting a portrait of Stalin.

But the line, "There is Leningrad, Stalingrad, but no Trotskygrad," gives the impression that Trotsky's ideas were killed with his assassination in 1940. This is no more the case than are the portrayal of Stalin and his heinous crimes ended with his death in 1953. The ideas of both Trotsky and Stalin continue to exist in conflict with one another.

The production erred, in my opinion, not in any attempt to evade the issues, but in an inability to link together the over -whelming material they had to work with into one definable purpose. There was an excess of anti-climatic scenes.

Some reviewers have expressed criticism over the term "musical" in the play's title. Despite its musical accompaniment, they believe the play is more a "tragedy."

I will allow Trotsky to answer: "Tragedy based on detached personal passions is too flat for our days. Why? Because we live in a period of social passions. The tragedy of our period lies in the conflict between the individual and the collectivity or in the conflict between two hostile collectivities in the same individual." ("Literature and Revolution")

The Traveling Jewish Theatre tours widely thoughout North America, Europe, and Israel. The group should be supported in its attempt to present theater in a direct and honest interpretation of the thought of humankind.

----- pull-quotes -----

Nor Applications Betag AcceptediToday