Cuba prepares for U.S. invasion

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10 SOCIALIST ACTION NOVEMBER 1984 The Oct. 8 New York Times reported on the very extensive preparations being made in Cuba against the threat of a U.S. invasion. The front-page article by Joseph B. Treaster outlines the "largescale evacuation and combat drills" and widespread construction of bomb shelters. Through a series of interviews with government officials and passers-by, Treaster shows that there is a deep and widespread belief among the Cuban people that the danger of a U.S. invasion is very real.

The Times article attempts to analyze what might lie behind the "dramatic increase in Cuba's defense measures."

Foreign diplomats in Havana are reported to sense that "Cuba is now sincerely convinced that an attack is in the offing."

Treaster notes the standard denial by a State Department spokesman of any intention to invade Cuba. But at the same time he conveys the apprehension of various unnamed diplomats that Cuban fears may be justified. "None of us thought they would invade Grenada, either, one of the diplomats is reported to have said.

Treaster provides speculation on other motives for the Cuban defense preparations. In this regard, he reports that Cuban officials have denied "they were orchestrating a nationwide drama intended to portray President Reagan as a threat to world peace and thus to influence the U.S. elections."

The Cuban officials quoted by the Times reporter point to the mounting evidence of an imminent attack on Cuba: the widening of the U.S. network of military bases in Honduras, the expansion of U.S. military facilities in Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Caribbean, and the large-scale maneuvers in the waters around Cuba itself.

Ricardo Alarcon de Quesada, a member of the Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party, is quoted as indicating that part of Cuba's strategy is to convince any possible aggressor that the people there are "prepared to fight for every inch of soil."

A new Vietnam War No one should have the slightest doubt of this. A U.S. invasion of Cuba would be very costly in human life-on both sides. The evidence is overwhelming that the population of Cuba, armed invasion.

The revolutionary Castroist government has shown great confidence in the 1 year ($42) • 6 month ($22) trial subscription -3 issues ($3)

tion. Cuban people. Through a series of mobilizations and rallies, it has systematically informed the Cuban people of the stakes involved in the ongoing struggle against U.S. imperialism.

The cost to the U.S. government of an invasion of Cuba would be enormous. A massive protest movement throughout the world would be a certain result. Latin America would be transformed into a seething cauldron. U.S. workers facing an ongoing offensive against their living standards-in contrast to the capitalist policy of concessions granted to workers during the Vietnam war—would add an explosive dimension to such a protest movement.

But there may be more to the current escalation of Cuban defense preparations than has yet been suggested in the capitalist media. Faced with increasing saber-rattling and actual war measures instituted by the U.S. government, a peace offensive has been launched by the embattled revolutionists in Nicaragua and El Salvador.

The Sandinista government of Nicaragua has recently accepted the Contadora nations' proposals as a basis for ending the conflict in Central America. The Salvadoran FMLN-FDR, having advanced a new peace plan earlier this headed by Jose Napoleon Duarte.

ment in Central America on terms that are consistent with its long-range goal of rolling back and ultimately crushing the revolutionary upsurge in the region.

On the other side, the Central American revolutionaries hope to achieve a detente that would preserve their material gains. They hope this would allow the resumption of their offensive when objective conditions—a deepening of the economic and political crisis for imperialism and its vassals in Latin America-changed to their advantage.

This is the context in which the Cuban government has instituted a vigorous intensification of its defense preparations. It constitutes an objective signal to imperialism that Cuba will not stand aside-as they were compelled to do during the invasion of Grenada-if negotiations break down and U.S.

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This is the strong side of the Castroist leadership of the Cuban revolution. Their military commitment to the struggle against imperialist oppression is without equal.

But they have a weaker side which comes from their theoretical shortcomings and, to an indeterminate degree, from their dependence on material aid doled out by the Stalinist rulers of the Soviet Union. This dependence makes them vulnerable to the influence of the counterrevolutionary political orientation of the Soviet bureaucrats.

Under this pressure, the Cuban revolutionaries make the mistake of seeing qualitative differences between factions of the capitalist class in every country. This is evidenced by their expressed belief that President Reagan represents the "war" faction while presidential candidate Mondale represents the "peace" faction of U.S. capitalism. (This is the grain of truth in the previously cited speculation that the massive increase in Cuban defenses is intended to influence the U.S. election in November.)

More generally, this mistaken notion underlies Cuban strategic errors. The Cuban strategy is to look to the Latin American "anti-imperialist" capitalist factions as allies against U.S. imperialism rather than to the Latin American and world working class. They mistakenly subordinate the anti-capitalist aspirations of Mexican workers, for instance, to the primarily diplomatic support given to Cuba and its allies in Central America by the dominant faction of the Mexican capitalist class.

Defense of Cuban revolution There are two things strategy:

1) Such alliances with capitalist forces must be limited by a pledge to remain within the framework of capitalist reforms-hobbling the revolutionary potential of workers and peasants. This is why top Cuban leader Carlos Rafael Rodriguez advised the revolutionary Sandinista government in Nicaragua not to follow the model of the Cuban socialist revolution.

2) This strategy rules out for the forseeable future the perspective of socialist revolution in Latin America and in the world. The Cuban leadership rationalizes this perspective with the assertion that El Salvador and Nicaragua, unlike Cuba, are not ready for the socialist revolution.

The Cuban government recognizes that real solidarity with the Central American revolution could lead to imperialist retaliation against Cuba in the event of an imperialist invasion. And it is preparing militarily for this possibility. But in the final analysis only a strategy based on the workers' struggle to conquer state power in Central America and in the rest of the world can unleash the elemental class forces that can provide the most effective defense of the Cuban socialist revolution.

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Alan A. Benjamir Editor

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invasion and civil war. The blockade of Russia shut down the factories at the same time that thousands of workers fell at the front defending their revolution.

In this environment, the workers' councils ceased to be the representative bodies they once were. The defeat of the German revolution of 1918 ended the possibility of any short-term succor to the beleaguered revoluton. And the result of the prolonged isolation of this predominantly peasant country was the rise of a bureaucratic ruling caste, intent on preserving its own material privileges, not only from capitalism, but from the workers themselves.

Self-preservation of the bureaucracy became more important than the liberation of the workers and peasants of the world. "Workers' democracy" disappeared from the lexicon of the official "communist" movement.

Yet the privileged status of the

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and well-trained, will put up an awe- some resistance to a U.S. imperialist:

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year, is now engaged in peace negotia- tions with the Salvadoran government

It is clear that the U.S. imperialist government's aim is to force a settle-